Decision Making with Insight (with Insight.xla 2.0 and CD-ROM)

Book Description

Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.

Customer Reviews:

The "algebraic cloud" has lifted!!.......2004-10-13

In his book, Decision Making with Insight, Dr. Savage really does lift the algegraic cloud that hinders the learning of management science and modeling. I second the above remark, I wish I had this type of text when I was in MBA school. The examples are truely enlightening.

I am actually reading this book for plan fun!

Outstanding Bang for the Buck!.......2004-05-04

I wish we had this book at Wharton. This is an excellent book on Monte Carlo modeling and optimization, among other things. You just can't beat the value of the book + software, and I personally like XLSim better than Crystal Ball because it gives you the EXACT SAME result, but in a much faster time frame and with far less complicated programming. Dr. Savage teaches you while you do the examples in the book. It is truly a great way to learn a complex, but very rewarding subject. You'll never do an IRR or NPV proforma analysis in the same way again.

Very practical! Inspiring! A turning point!.......2003-08-07

Dr. Savage, a second generation statistician and consulting professor at Stanford University, provides a practical and hands-on introduction to analytical decision making. The book is jam-packed with sound theory presented in an easy to read format. The methods presented use the familiar language of Microsoft Excel to crack complicated problems with relative ease! This book & accompanying software helped me better understand 6-years of advanced engineering and business training. Recommended as an excellent resource for researchers, practioners, and educators alike.

Expert Systems: A Decision Support Approach : With Applications in Management and Finance (The Insight Series in Artificial Intelligence)

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Expert Systems: A Decision Support Approach : With Applications in Management and Finance (The Insight Series in Artificial Intelligence)
Michel Klein , and Leif B. Methlie
Manufacturer: Addison Wesley Publishing Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Corporate Finance | Finance | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Decision-Making & Problem Solving | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Software | Computers & Internet | Subjects | Books

General | Science | Subjects | Books

General & Reference | Technology | Science | Subjects | Books

General | Arts & Photography | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0201175622

Book Description

This book uniquely integrates expert system technology with decision support technology and introduces a new conceptual framework - knowledge-based decision support systems. The book provides comprehensive, knowledge-based decision support systems for a business-oriented audience.

NLP & The Essence of Intuition with Charles Faulkner

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NLP & The Essence of Intuition with Charles Faulkner
Charles Faulkner
Manufacturer: NLP Comprehensive
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Audio CD

General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Investing | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Stress Management | Self-Help | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books

101 Ways to Jump Start Your Intuition

ASIN: B000OY3UEK

Product Description

In this unique audio seminar, international trainer of NLP and renown modeler of decision-making strategies and financial market wizards, Charles Faulkner, reveals how all ideas begin from intuition. For those who want to have greater access to their internal resources, this program offers you the how-to, from the benefits of cultivating greater intuitive awareness to its utilization. Designed to go well beyond informing you of possibilities, this program provides you with methods for developing your own intuitive capacities, and will assist you toward establishing a greater flow of communications between your unconscious and conscious mind. Learn how expert decision-makers actually listen to their intuition; what to pay attention to (including how to sort out false intuitions from real ones); how you can improve your abilities to invite intuition; how emotions can be utilized to encourage rather than block intuition, and perhaps most importantly: how you can recognize intuition when it presents itself - so you can appropriately act upon the unconscious insights when they emerge into your conscious awareness; A higher level development you can achieve, whether your own intuition is attempting to protect you, or guide you toward accomplishing your personal goals and desired outcomes in life. The material on this program is a compilation of Charles modeling expertise and his work with several great inventors, discoverers and well known decision-makers brought to you on this 2 CD set with an accompanying booklet that outlines the exercises presented. And now... we invite you to discover the limits of logic with the possibilities of intuition.

Decision Making with Insight: Includes Insight.Xla 2.0

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Decision Making with Insight: Includes Insight.Xla 2.0
Sam L. Savage
Manufacturer: Thomsom
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: 0534462782

Book Description

Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.

Customer Reviews:

Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03

Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.

Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19

Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.

Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09

There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.

For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.

Very Interesting.......2007-03-07

It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.

History as Science Fiction.......2007-01-10

Anatoly Fomenko has written a very intriguing book, full of pictures, charts, and computer 'proof' of his thesis: backwards of AD900 we don't really know what happened or when. Between AD900 and AD1600 there is more certainty, but there is still a lot of fuzzy ground, and things don't get reliable until we get past the 1600's where the printing press made it very difficult for the perpetrators of this timeline manipulation to change anything that had been committed to print. The Dark Ages did not happen. Books were burned for a reason. One organization has doubled the actual length of its existence by expanding the real chronology. Read why.

I had always wondered why Christ died about AD33 and yet men waited until the 11th century to form the Knights Templar, the Cathars, etc and go after the Holy Land by force. Why the 1000 year gap? Turns out there wasn't more than a 10-12 year gap and he proves it using astronomy. This also implies that the planet is not as old as we have been told, and current Christian and other creationist scientists are already championing that idea without being aware of Fomenko's book. The two groups, creationist scientists and the Russian mathematical analysts corroborate each other. Fascinating.

Of course, all this flies in the face of what we have been told traditionally is the 'proper' chronology of western civilization, and most readers will experience 'cognitive dissonance' in reading this book. It means that our history going backwards from AD1600 becomes progressively more incorrect and unreliable until it cannot be trusted at all... in the space of 700-800 years.

Naturally, the curious, open-minded reader will want to know WHO did this, WHY, and did any of the events we think of as really ancient ever happen?
Dr. Fomenko is a respected scientist/mathematician at Moscow State University who has already answered these questions to the satisfaction of his initially skeptical colleagues. Most of them are now believers, a few still refuse to believe (the usual diehards), and of course the western press has ignored Fomenko's work -- for obvious reasons when you read the book. The ones who perpetrated this chronology ruse have a lot to answer for. They are still with us. That's why this book is a well-kept secret.

I gave the book a 4-star rating because I was unable to check out some of his claims; those I checked were as he said. But if even 1/3 of his claims are true, this punches a big hole in what we think is our history, the meaning of western civilization, our educational process (for repeating the ruse as gospel), and the trustworthiness of the organization that perpetrated this ruse, well-intentioned or not.

This book relates to current research into a Young Earth paradigm, to John Keel's discoveries about our planet, and Fr Malachi Martin's insights (in his now out-of-print books). We are indeed sheep who are manipulated and kept ignorant -- for a reason. While knowing what these men have to say may be the "booby prize" (as in: 'what can you do with this knowledge?'), it will provide interesting reading. Didn't someone say: "...and the Truth will set you free."?? For you to judge if this book contains the truth.

Applying Sun Tzu's Art of War in Corporate Politics: Spiced With Real-Life Illustrations and Ovservations, It Is Written in a Breezy Style That Allows for Easy Reading, Understanding and Retention

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Applying Sun Tzu's Art of War in Corporate Politics: Spiced With Real-Life Illustrations and Ovservations, It Is Written in a Breezy Style That Allows for Easy Reading, Understanding and Retention
Khoo Kheng-Hor
Manufacturer: Pelanduk Publications
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Company Profiles | Biography & History | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Management | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Eastern Philosophy | Other Eastern Religions | Religion & Spirituality | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 9679785432

Coming of Age: Readings in Canadian History Since World War II

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Coming of Age: Readings in Canadian History Since World War II
Donald Avery , and Roger Hall
Manufacturer: Harcourt Brace Canada
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Product Description

a provocative collection of readings that provides the essential background to understanding contemporary Canada. The only reader that contextualizes the major social, cultural , political, and economic issues that have influenced Canada's maturation since World War II.

The economic impact of the cold war;: Sources and readings (The Forces in American economic growth series)

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The economic impact of the cold war;: Sources and readings (The Forces in American economic growth series)
James L Clayton
Manufacturer: Harcourt, Brace & World
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 015518797X

The Economics of the Drug War: Effective Federal Policy of Missed Opportunity?

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The Economics of the Drug War: Effective Federal Policy of Missed Opportunity?

Manufacturer: Storming Media
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Spiral-bound

War on Drugs | Crime & Criminals | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 1423508645

Product Description

This is a NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A778504. The abstract provided by the Pentagon follows: We calculated the value of two distinct economic inefficiencies that result from the prohibition of drugs. We define and illustrate these inefficiencies as the two direct components of the deadweight loss created by prohibition. The first is under-consumption and the second component, unique to our analysis, is the payment for risk. Using the 1999 illegal quantities and prices, the derived legal prices, and the estimated demand elasticities for four illegal drugs, we calculated the estimated quantity demanded for these drugs in legal markets. We then used the results of these calculations and estimated the total deadweight loss of the drug war in 1999 to be over &90 billion -- $65 billion in payment for risk and $24 billion in under-consumption. We then focus our analysis on the indirect components of the deadweight loss, e.g., costs to reduce supply, cost of incarceration, and productivity losses, etc. Our conservative estimate for indirect deadweight loss for 1999 was $96.1 billion. In the final chapter, we estimate that of the total deadweight loss, America could gain $6.7 billion annually in taxes from legal drug sales, save over $34 billion annually in drug war costs, and recoup the remainder via reductions in prohibition-related phenomena.

The History and Future of Warfare - Selections of the Professional Readings in Military Strategy

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The History and Future of Warfare - Selections of the Professional Readings in Military Strategy
Harry H. Almond Jr. , and James A. Burger
Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Strategy & Competition | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Military | History | Subjects | Books

Military Science | History | Subjects | Books

General | Law | Subjects | Books

General | International Law | Law | Subjects | Books

History & Theory | Politics | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

History of Technology | Technology | Science | Subjects | Books

International Law | Law | Professional & Technical | Subjects | Books

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General | Law | New & Used Textbooks | Stores | Books
ASIN: 9041194622

Book Description

Legal standards are an important part of military strategic decision making, both as to whether or not to take military action and how military action should be conducted once the decision is made. Insight into the practical and economic application of these standards is at the core of this thought-provoking book.

Edited with extensive legal commentary and analysis by two prominent US military lawyers with global experience, The History and Future of Warfare presents a revealing survey of the most significant findings, over a 30-year period, of outstanding military advisers and scholars on the use, control, and conduct of military forces in hostilities. Drawing on the work of the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College -- work which has deeply influenced military thinking and doctrine not only in the US but worldwide -- this book distills the considered judgment of a generation of commentators on the operational controls that have evolved since the 1960s and been tested and refined in conflicts from Vietnam to Kosova.

Collecting 31 essays in ten chapters (with introductory comments to each chapter), the book addresses such specific issues and practical problems as the following:

+ the role of NATO and its enlargement;
+ justifications of the recourse to war, especially the `Weinberger Doctrine';
+ setting legal controls on new weapons and new military technologies;
+ to what extent military strategy should support human rights and protection of the environment;
+ strategic implications of regional alliances such as ASEAN;
+ confronting international terrorism; and
+ the doctrine of peacekeeping and its strategic promise. There are also essays dealing with particular geographical and regional military issues that arise in Russia, China, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, as well as studies of the changing role of the United Nations and the US in the New World Order.

The History and Future of Warfare allows international lawyers, defense policymakers and other interested parties to consider in depth serious problems involving the use of military force. Through its clear thinking about legal standards, both existing (such as the Geneva Protocols of December 1977) and proposed, it helps these professionals to resolve issues of improper or unlawful conduct in regard to the use of military force.

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Readings in the Economics of War
J. Maurice (editor) Clark
Manufacturer: University of Chicago Press, 1918
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000K06AHC

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Readings in the Economics of War
J. Maurice Clark
Manufacturer: University Press of the Pacific
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Economic Conditions | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
Economic Conditions | International | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 1410204669

Book Description

Originally published by the University of Chicago Press in 1918, this volume aims to throw light upon the various economic questions, which arise in connection with war. It covers the economic background of war in general, the economic reorganization required in view of the necessities of a world war, and the economic questions involved in the reorganization of the industrial system at the end of World War I.

The War Economy of the United States: Readings in Military Industry and Economy

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The War Economy of the United States: Readings in Military Industry and Economy

Manufacturer: St. Martin's Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000B2WQ6S

WAR, PEACE, AND EMPIRE: Lynchburg College Symposium Readings

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WAR, PEACE, AND EMPIRE: Lynchburg College Symposium Readings
Daniel G. Lang
Manufacturer: Xlibris Corporation
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Economic Conditions | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

General | Politics | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 1425746748

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Jimmy Buffet: The Man from Margaritaville Revealed
Steve Eng
Manufacturer: St. Martin's Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000KPG98W

Book Description

This book is a story that sends the reader careening through episodes of childhood abuse, teenage drug addiction, and as an adult the compulsion to repeat the sins of his father.

Customer Reviews:

Sheila!.......2006-06-16

What a suvivor. Wayne Theodore I appreciate this book. There are so many adults suffering today because of childhood abuse.People don't even know about most of the cases. Some parents and family have truely been mean to chidren and ruined lives. And do you know what, the abusers are crazy enough to wonder why those that they have abused have problems in life. Carl Theodore could have given his family a better life. His son mentioned him having money in his pockets.But he chose not to be a good provider. What would make a person want to inflict pain on his own children? What and why? I hope Wayne's brothers and sisters come to realize how wonderful Wayne is. I hope they have grown closer and supportive of each other. Can you just imagine how many sick people are taking advantage of children? There are a lot of sick parents in this world. Their children are sometimes the product of their wickness.

truly inspiring.......2006-03-22

It takes a lot of courage to face your fear, and in this book Wayne faces and confronts his hideous past. Bringing to light his repressed memories of his upbringing. I think the way he rises above everything to be the person he is today, is a lesson to us all. This book is a good read, i could not put it down. I read the whole book all in one sitting.

great book.......2005-03-25

i just read this book it was really good, i could'nt put it down,it told really good stories about what he had went throgh as a child.

Couldn't Put It Down.......2004-10-05

I enjoyed this book tremendously. It's important for adult survivors of child abuse to get our message out. Thank you, Wayne!

A Truly Touching and Inspirational Story!.......2004-07-01

Wayne's story touched my heart deeply and made me realize how life-altering and psychologically destructive child abuse is. We are never really free from the pain of abuse although, as in Wayne's case we can rise above the pain and reach out to others. He determined to share his story with the world and he has done so in beautiful prose and with a striking humility and gentleness of spirit. What a Hero! God bless you Wayne for telling your story.

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